thank you all for the discussion today and for all your contributions to the program this year. i really appreciate it. before we go, i wanted to point out that if you missed the interview with the president, you can watch a rebroadcast on msnbc later today at 2:00 p.m., 4:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. eastern, and again tomorrow morning at 6:00 a.m. for highlights from the interview, be sure to follow me on twitter, @davidgregory, my handle. that's all for today. we'll be back next year. until then, have a happy new year. if it's sunday, it's "meet the press." i think we all know we are

running out of time. i need a dance partner. >> at this stage we are not able to make a counteroffer. we are apart on big issues. >> with less than two days to go until the fiscal cliff negotiations have hit a major setback. the senate is in session but after 516 days congress has not been able to make a deal. this morning in an exclusive interview president obama said compromise will be a key to making a deal. >> it is very important for republicans in congress to be willing to say we understand we are not going to get 100%. we are willing to compromise in a serious way. >> senate leaders hoped to send a plan right about now. the talks have broken down. listen to what senate leader said on the floor a short while ago. >> now, i'm concerned about the lack of urgency here. i think we all know we are

running out of time. this is far too much at stake for political gamesmanship. the consequences of this are too high for the american people to be engaged in a political messaging campaign. i am interested in getting a result here. >> we have been trying to come up with some counteroffer to my friends' proposal. we have been unable to do that. i had have had a conversation with the president and that this stage we are not able to make a counteroffer. >> what happens now? with us is cello o'donnell and kristen welker. >> we are sort of at a pause point. if you are looking at the tone of these leaders what is i think optimistic is they have both acknowledged that the other side is acting in good faith. nobody has huffed and stormed away. there are signs that they still want to work together. at the same time they are

calling for reinforcements. leader mcconnell says he has placed a call to the vice president asking him to get involved in this in part because joe biden was in the senate for so long and has been able to help bring the two sides together in previous cases where they were down to the wire. we know that call has gone out. harry reid says he has reached out to the president on the phone a couple of times. republicans say there is no single issue that should break this. there is something that democrats are talking about. what we have learned is in an offer presented by republicans last night at 7:00 included within that was a request to make a change to how future increases to the payments of social security would change. not taking any money away presently but over the years to come reducing the amount of increase. that is called chain cpi. for democrats it is a nonstarter. here is majority leader harry reid. >> we're not going to have any

social security cuts. at this stage that doesn't seem appropriate. i still hold out hope that we can get something done but i'm not overly optimistic but i am cautiously optimistic. >> so you hear some sense that there might be a potential for movement. i think we have to judge everything in little incremental steps. why do republicans want that? basically their focus is if they are giving on tax increases which we get the indication they are willing to do at least to some degree they would like to see something that addresses the long-term deficit. whether that can happen in this deal seems to be the problem. democrats have said if they can get something bigger they would be open to changes in entitlements. that is where things stand. there is clearly even handed on both sides saying they want to get things done. you know the clock is running and those signs make everyone

think this may not resolve itself tonight. >> thank you very much. let's go to the white house and kristen welker. hi there. >> reporter: hi, there. the white house is not commenting on these developments. senior administration officials say the action is going on on the hill right now. they are hesitant to weigh in. they don't want to disrupt any progress or setbacks that may be in the process of being resolved. so that is what the white house is saying publicly. i can tell you that behind the scenes it is a very busy day here at the white house. staffers have been on the phone with their counter parts on the hill. president obama also on the phone as you heard report he has spoken a number of times to majority leaderer harry reid. vice president biden also here at the white house. he can of course be an incredibly important player in this entire process. president obama's strategy has to some extent been to wage a

public campaign putting the pressure on congress to get something done during that exclusive interview earlier today you heard the president accuse republicans of being solely focused on protecting the taxes of wealthier americans. of course, president obama wants to see the bush era tax cuts extended for those making $250,000 or less while letting it raise on those making more than that. that $250,000 figure is up for debate and is up for compromise. i can tell you that republican leaders on the hill fired back saying he was more interested on assigning blame than getting something done and leading while they are trying to hammer out a deal. that is where things stand right now at the white house. clearly watching these developments quite closely. >> kristen welker, thank you. we will be checking back throughout the afternoon, as well. nchlts for more on where

negotiations stand and whether a deal can be reached before the deadline we are joined by michigan democratic congressman. thank you for being here today. we are learning that negotiations have hit a major setback over a republican offer that includes entitlement changes. what exactly you hearing? >> i'm hearing just that. i think that the decision by senator mcconnell to bring up chain cpi is not a helpful step. it will effect the benefits for social security recipients. also for veterans, also for those on disability. so in a word i think it is not a step forward. i think they need to essentially drop that. i think what needs to happen is they focus on the middle class tax cuts. there are going to be millions and millions affected by that,

the same with the tax. i think the republicans simpry have to accept the notion that middle class tax cuts must continue while those for the upper income must end. that is the basic issue. i think throwing in cpi at this point is not helpful. >> senate minority leader said he reached out to the vice president. we have heard that he has a better relationship with joe biden than the president himself. do you think they will be able to break this impasse in such a short amount of time? >> i don't think chain cpi is helpful. that has to be discussed as part of long-term entitlement discussions, not to be brought up really at the last minute. so i don't think bringing in the vice president is going to resolve that issue. my guess is the vice president is going to say let's focus on

the middle class tax cuts and make sure they continue and make sure we also look at unemployment insurance. 2 million people are losing their benefits as we stand here. also, the alternative minimum tax which would effect 20 million taxpayers. that is where the focus has to be right now. and i don't think it's helpful for senator mcconnell to shift the focus away from that. those issues of entitlement reform need to be considered on a long-term basis considering the long-term not injected into the short-term negotiations that are now facing the crisis of 48 hours. >> well, last week in the hill you wrote and i want to read it. today's republican party is dangerously close to abandoning any ability to work on a bipartisan basis. columnist lays blame on the republicans. listen to what he had to say about the president.

>> i would say that sometimes he governs like a visitor from a morally superior civilization. he comes in here and he will talk with boehner. he won't talk with the other republicans. he hasn't built the trust. >> so has the president and the democrats, do you think they have done enough to build trust on the other side? >> i think so. i have been here 30 years now. this republican conference in the house is more hard edged, more hard to bid than has been true almost all the time i have been here. there has been in a sense a radicalization in the republican conference here in the house and it makes it very difficult to negotiate. the president has been talking with the speaker. he made an offer. it was essentially rejected by the speaker. he then comes up with another alternative. it is turned down by the

conference that he is supposed to lead. i think all of that has made this a more difficult proposition. i think the president, he has offered cuts in spending essentially it has been very difficult to deal with this republican majority now in the house. and what i am hopeful of in this very, very critical last 48 hours is that the senate will act, they will find common ground and i also hope that if that doesn't happen is that the proposal will be put up, cut middle class tax cuts, not those for the higher income. unemployment insurance for people and the alternative tax let that be brought over to the house and let's vote on it. that is i think the best way to break the stalemate to test whether there is flexibility. i think the president has been

very much engaged. i think he has tried to reach out. it is hard to reach out if on the other side there really is a very, very hard edge. it is difficult. >> democratic congressman, thank you very much. >> thank you. with these new developments how likely is it that senators mcconnell and reid will have a deal to vote on. let's bring in the author of "the escape artists." thank you for being here today. >> happy to be here. >> what do you think the republicans are trying to accomplish with this new bargainingship? i am willing to bet most americans have ever heard of a chain cpish i before today. >> it is a good question. i think there are only two possibilities, one is that mcconnell and the republican leadership in congress have decided that better to get no deal before january 1st and go over the cliff.

this is just kind of the classic deal breaker. they want it to be rejected to kill the negotiations. the second possibility is that i think they were probably getting blowback from the conservative members of their respective caucuses in the senate and the house over parts of the deal that were coming into focus in particular the unemployment benefits that a lot of conservatives considered too generous. so this was a way i think to show the conservative parts that they were bargaining harder for what they were about to give the democrats. those two things aren't mutually exclusive. it could be that they were getting pressure and decided to introduce this poison pill to blow up the negotiations because they didn't want to get the flack from the right that they were going to get. i think it is one or both of those things. >> let's bring in the congressional reporter for the

washington post. are we looking at the real possibility that these negotiations will be passed on to the next congress? >> well, we are certainly getting closer and there is still time to go. the fact that mitch mcconnell and joe biden are now leading these talks is actually somewhat encouraging because these two have cut deals before. they have served together for quite a while in the senate. they were part of the debt ceiling negotiations last year and it was believed that mitch mcconnell would be brought in to these negotiations. the fact that they are still talking and on capitol hill yesterday and here today and remains hopeful that something can come suggests they are eager to cut some kind of a deal. we will have to wait and see whether or not it is conceivable by the end of the day. >> you wrote an article titled "the fiscal cliff is just an early battle in a war that democrats are going to win"

where do you think republicans went wrong? >> well, you know, the problem for republicans i think isn't so much a tactical decision they made but isn't acknowledging where public opinion is. the reason democrats have the upperhand isn't just because the policy they want sort of happens automatically. all the tax cuts including the tax cuts for the wealthy expire on january 1. so that is sort of a short term advantage. these programs, medicare, social security are incredibly popular. cutting them is unpopular. republicans' basic agenda is to cut them. some want to cut them or reform them for totally good reasons that costs are rising over time and as the population ages they take up more and more of the economy and more government spending. they are at a strategic disadvantage which is they want to cut programs that are

incredib incredibly popular. anytime you are set against the consensus of public opinion it is a difficult course. you have to acknowledge that reality. as long as obama and democrats have that they will have the leverage as we repeat the negotiations in the decades to come. >> thank you for joining me. stick around we will be speaking with you two later this hour. coming up the republican who is not afraid to stand up to his own party joins us live. what does he make of the sudden turn in the fiscal talks? is there still time to hammer out a deal. how you can dance the night away with the president and first lady at one of the inaugural balls. copd makes it hard to breathe,

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talking to republicans. they have had trouble saying yes to a number of repeated offers. i was modestly optimistic yesterday but we don't yet see an agreement and now the pressure is on congress to produce. >> that was president obama urging republicans to come together on a fiscal cliff deal. the comments drew a quick response to john boehner who said republicans made every effort to reach the balanced deficit agreement that the president promised the people. we have been responsible and reasonable. the president is the one who has never been able to get to yes. we are learning that the fiscal cliff talks have hit a major setback today. joining us is oklahoma congressman tom cole.

what are you hearing? are you hopeful that there is a deal today? >> i am probably the last optimist in washington. all the parties that can make a deal are in town. that is a step in the right direction. there is very serious negotiations going on now between senator mcconnell and leader reed. they have found common ground. i wouldn't be surprised that there are bumps along the way but the senate will get something done and it moves to the house. and what senate would be extraordinary important. >> until now it appeared negotiations centered around a small deal that would likely extend bush tax cuts for all but high earners and extend unemployment benefits for people set to lose them on january 2 and prevent the alternative minimum tax.

should republicans wait until next year to negotiate a larger deal that could include changes to entitlements. >> there are areas of agreement here which would take care so the american people aren't worried about things. the real issue is exactly what the speaker suggested. the president has not brought them to the table in that respect. at the end of the day even if we arrived at a deal here we will be in serious negotiations literally from day one in january with the debt ceiling and the continuing resolution and sequester in front of us. until the democrats get serious about spending cuts we will have one crisis after another. >> there has been back and forth between the president and house speaker john boehner on who has been more reasonable in negotiations. let me play for you what the

president said earlier today. >> you said that republicans have a hard time saying yes particularly to you. what is it about you, mr. president, that you think is so hard to say yes to? >> that is something you are probably going to have to ask them because, david, you follow this stuff pretty carefully. the offers that i have made to them have been so fair that a lot of democrats get mad at me. i mean, i offered to make some significant changes to our entitlement programs in order to reduce the deficit. >> so do you agree with the president? do you think he has been willing to make cuts that democrats typically want to avoid? >> first of all, i think we have said yes to the president on a number of occasions, the budget deal in april of 2011 and the debt ceiling deal in august of 2011 and the transportation and student loan deals last year and free trade deals. this idea that we can't get things done simply is not true.

the president has not really addressed the real issues in front of us and that is spending and entitlement reform. his own budget doesn't get democratic votes. he has to get serious about that. i think the speaker is appropriately trying to focus the attention where it goes. we will solve this revenue question i think in relatively short order hopefully in the next 48 or 72 hours if not within a week or so after that. the revenue that the president is asking for won't fix the problem that the country is facing. he has to get serious about spending reform and entitlement reform. the country is going to suffer until he does. that is the reason for the speaker's frustration. >> you are indeed an optimist. >> i am. >> thank you very much for coming on with us today. just in case you missed it we will be reairing "meet the press" at the top of the hour. a year ago he was signing autographs in iowa.

now governor rick perry is in texas. does he still have his sights set on the white house? ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] everyone deserves the gift of all day pain relief. this season, discover aleve. all day pain relief with just two pills.

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pampers. peaceful nights. playful days. commerce, and let's see. the third one i can't, sorry. >> that was texas governor rick perry at last year's cnbc presidential debate. it doesn't mean the white house isn't in his sights still with perry promoting issues like abortion rights restrictions. could perry 2016 be around the corner? let's take a look at some more top stories. come one, come all and get your 2013 nogular ball tickets. you can't just get them but you can go online and sign up for a chance to buy tickets that will cost about $60 each. while president obama's second inauguration will be a happy

occasion. it will be a cloudy day but it will be nearly 10 degrees warmer than four years ago with a high of 37 degrees. and if you are planning to attend the inauguration you will have more elbow room. d.c. officials estimate the number of people attending in january will be between 600 to 800,000. that is a far crowd from the people that filled the national mall four years ago. the congress is about to achieve the distinction of being the least productive session of congress since the 1940s. with only 219 bills passed and signed by president obama they may give new meaning of the term do nothing congress. and senator mike crapo has decided not to fight the charges of his dui arrest which tests showed his blood alcohol was nearly twice the legal limit.

congressman chris van hallen said congress needed to reach a deal on the fiscal cliff by christmas. less than 48 hours until that cliff what does he think now? you are watching msnbc, the place for politics. when you have diabetes... your doctor will say get smart about your weight.

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the self-imposed 3:00 p.m. deadline the senate came up with for a deal has come and gone which means without a last minute deal starting january 1st tax hikes and massive spending cuts will be in effect. extended unemployment benefits have ended. we will be live on capitol hill with the latest developments coming up in just a moment. before we take you over to capitol hill here are stories that we are monitoring for you today. a new york woman who allegedly admitted to pushing a subway commuter to his death has been charged with second degree murderer as a hate crime. police say erica menendez told

them she has hated hindus and muslims since the twin tower attacks on september 11. it is the second time a commuter has been pushed to their death this month in a new york subway. a respected german paper has apologized after publishing an obituary of george h.w. bush. the former president is very much alive and in a regular patient room at houston's methodist hospital. nelson mandela was discharged earlier this week and is home resting. he was being treated for a recurring lung infection. the family of a 6-year-old survivor of the newtown shooting is seeking to file a $100 million lawsuit against the state of connecticut. their attorney accuses the state of failing to provide a safe school setting for his client. and a high school student suspended by her school for a

poem she wrote expressing her feelings on the newtown shooting is speaking out. >> i never said i understood him. i understood what happened and i feel that things like that happen because people aren't heard. so you know when you are dealing with people who have mental problems, of course, they feel like they are not being heard they are going to go do something like that. >> in a letter to the teenager's mom the school says the poem violated their zero violence policy towards violence. . senate republican leader took to the floor and expressed frustration with negotiations. >> there is no single issue that remains an impossible sticking point. the sticking point appears to be a willingness and interest or frankly the courage to close the deal. i want everyone to know i'm willing to get this done. but i need a dance partner. >> joining me now is congressman

chris van hallen, thanks for coming on with us today. >> good to be with you. >> how do you respond to the latest statements that we just listened to? >> well, earlier this morning i would have said there was about a 50/50 chance of getting an agreement. because of senator mcconnell the republican leader in the senatet's latest demands i think the odds have fallen. he threw a major road block into these negotiations when he demanded as part of a much smaller deal to include changes to social security as a largerer agreement. it comes back to the same thing. republicans are unwilling to ask very high income individuals to pitch in more which is why we are back at a smaller deal instead of the larger agreement that the president had originally proposed. >> we are talking about

something today that nobody had heard of yesterday and that the chain cpi, this new way of calculating entitlement benefits. republicans are insisting that it be included and it is at the last minute. >> that is what i am referring to this request that you make changes in social security, a demand come into these negotiations at the last minute. the conversation that the president proposed $1.2 trillion in revenue for higher income individuals. a match in cuts. the president in a very controversial move as he indicated this morning said he would be willing to look at the cost of living index. it is part of a larger deal with higher income individuals are going to share some of the burden. republicans want folks on social security and folks on medicare

whose median income is about $22,000. they want them to carry the burden of reducing the deficit and refuse to ask higher income individuals to pitch in to fully share responsibility. and that is exactly what is happening. it is important to know that republicans are now demanding that the wealthiest of the very wealthiest estates in this country get a sweetheart deal on estate taxes which would help 7,200 families in the country next year get an average tax break of $1.2 million. and they are holding up tax relief for everybody else in the country in order to get this demand met for the very wealthiest estates. this isn't even the top 1%. this is a fraction of 1%. while they want to give those folks a big break they want folks on social security to pay more. and so this is a major setback. it is interesting to hear mitch

mcconnell talking about his good faith efforts. he knows that he just threw a monkey wrench into the negotiations y. think he is also doing it to protect speaker boehner and the republicans and the house because he doesn't want to send them a deal that he knows they are going to vote down. >> let's talk about the blame game going on. i want to play a piece of tape. republican this morning really blaming president obama. let's listen. >> what we're seeing here is a monumental failure of presidential leadership. the president is the only person with a pen who can sign this and it is the president's responsibility to work on something that the house will pass and the senate will pass. he is outsourcing this. he continues to campaign and lecture when he ought to be focusing on the number one problem that hurts us in the country which is our debt. >> what is your reaction to hearing that? >> that is a lot of nonsense and

i think the american people who have been following this conversation recognize that the president has proposed a balanced deal meaning he is going to ask higher income individuals to pay a little more matched by additional cuts. by the way, we have made $1 trillion in cuts. what has really happened is speaker boehner in the house and republicans have refused to allow a vote, an up or down vote on the president's proposal. we are not asking all of them to vote for it. the speaker doesn't have to vote for it. for the good of our democracy let us have a vote. the worst thing that could happen would be it didn't get enough votes but speaker boehner couldn't get his own house republicans to vote for his plan b a week ago because he asked millionaires to pitch in a little bit more. all the president is asking for here is an up or down vote in the senate so that republicans not use procedural tactics to block a vote, just allow the

democracy to work its will. if the majority supports the president's plan and the majority in the house supports the president's plan then we can avoid the fiscal cliff. they won't allow a vote in the house on the president's proposal. we haven't had a vote on his plan. >> thank you, congressman for being here with us today. >> thank you. coming up in our war room finger pointing is coming from all sides. these fiscal cliff negotiations. which side will likely face the bulk of the blame if there is no deal. [ male announcer ] it's that time of year again. time for citi price rewind. because your daughter really wants that pink castle thing. and you really don't want to pay more than you have to. only citi price rewind automatically searches for the lowest price. and if it finds one, you get refunded the difference. just use your citi card and register your purchase online. have a super sparkly day! ok. [ male announcer ] now all you need is a magic carriage. citi price rewind. start saving at citi.com/pricerewind.

citi price rewind. with a new project in mind, some how-to knowledge to give us an new years clutter is no match for someone with big ideas. edge, and more savings down every aisle. it only takes a few twists and turns for those bright ideas to make the new year even brighter. more saving. more doing. that's the power of the home depot. start fresh and save with hdx 20 gallon totes, a special buy at just $5.88 a piece. and it doesn't mean you compromise your principals but it means you can compromise what the american people want us to do. yes, they do. senator barbara boxerer is urging for compromise.

there is not a lot of signs of it on capitol hill right now. democrats and republicans are unable to make a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. let's get political insight on the recent setback on the fiscal cliff discussions. i'm joined by richard good stein and robert trainm. a former communications director for rick santorum. talks have broken down for the moment. what do you think is going on behind closed doors right now on capitol hill? >> i think a lot more is going on than we know. i think the staff as well as perhaps maybe leader mcconnell and vice president biden and the administration are probably trying to hammer out some type of a deal here. i know there is consternation about the chain cpi. the president said even though this is unpopular i am willing

to talk a little bit about chain cpi. now that the president said this let's talk about this and try to compromise here. >> there have been several phone conversations today between senator reid and president obama. what is your take on the white house involvement? >> well, look, obviously the white house is pivotal here. i mean, the president litigated all of these issues during the campaign. he is the one who won by a fairly healthy margin nationally. of course, he is going to ultimately have the final say in what leeway he is prepared to give leaders in both the democratic side in the house and senate. of course, the president is going to have a big say in this and staff is up to their eye balls in the details and the fact that vice president biden has been brought in on this by senator mcconnell. it under scores what the president said on "meet the press." he has gone more than half way

on taxes and spending cuts. and i think we're just seeing more illustrations of that with each passing hour. >> both sides are sparring over who is to blame. they are all blaming each other. president obama was a guest on "meet the press." let's listen. >> 75% of the congressmen come from gerrymandered districts in which they are bullet proof. they don't go home and have to prove their case because they have a choir back home. >> i think it has been very hard for speaker boehner and republican leading mcconnell to accept the fact that taxes on the wealthiest americans should go up a little bit as part of an overall deficit reduction package. >> in a statement house speaker john boehner shot back writing americans electedt president obama to lead, not to cast blame. the president's comments today

are ironic as a current theme of negotiations is an unwillingness to agree to anything that would required him to stand up to his own party. does it look like the president and speaker are closer to mending fences? >> it doesn't. the president i think was seen by both parties in some respects as a bit of a pushover during the debate about the debt ceiling and frankly going back two years exactly now around extending the bush tax cuts. i think he is showing he is not. he litigated this during the campaign and won. this fight is going to be fought out in connection with the debt ceiling, in connection with keeping the government funding at the end of march and the next debt ceiling and the one after that. and the one thing that the public and certainly the business community wants is certainty. i think what the president is putting down this marker and saying we are not doing that over and over and over. the economy is poised to take off. we are just not going to go down

that path. if you want to duke it out now let's do it. i think there is high regard between him and speaker boehner and i think the president could walk away from this feeling he stood up for the middle class and the verdict of the voters. and if the polls are an indication he has a broad majority of the public with him. the house members stand up for the fact that they have been favorable to nor quist. they can vote to reduce taxes for most americans and still feel that they have never voted to raise taxes. >> one more question for you, robert. we heard tom brokaw. is the partisan redistricting fair? >> absolutely. i think tom is right on point there. it is not just republicans here that for the most part have their own constituency. i think also the democrats, as well. this is a circular firing squad and both sides are to blame for this hyperpartisanship that we have here in washington, d.c.

both sides are emboldined by their core constitchancies and that is reinforced on both sides. they only hear what they want to hear. they have their own twisted version of the constitution instead of compromising like the way it should have been done many, many months ago. >> thanks to you both. >> thanks. coming up political prediction for 2013. new year and new hope for bipartisanship on capitol hill? [ sniffs ] i have a cold. [ sniffs ] i took dayquil but my nose is still runny. [ male announcer ] truth is, dayquil doesn't treat that. really? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus fights your worst cold symptoms, plus it relieves your runny nose. [ breathes deeply ] awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is. that's the cold truth!

still no signs of a deal in the senate right now on how to avert the fiscal cliff. let's bring back the senior editor of "the new republic" and author of "the escape artists, how obama's team fumbled the recovery" and ed o'keefe congressional reporter for the "washington post." thanks to both of you for coming back here. ed, do you think the deal is dead right now? >> no, by no means.

as we understand it, negotiations are continuing. right now both parties in the senate are meeting behind closed doors to discuss what was going on and what they may or may not be able to agree to as you've reported throughout the hour. mitch mcconnell has reached out to vice president biden, two experienced legislative hands who have worked together on these types of deals before. if anyone at this late hour could get a deal done it would likely be these two. keep in mind, no matter what deal is crafted on in the senate, voted on tonight and tomorrow morning it still has to get passed here in the house where i'm standing right now. we were talking to tom cole a little while ago on the show. off camera he was telling me, look, if you conceivably get 180 democrats to vote for this and maybe 40 republicans to get past that 218, 220-mark, where are you going to find the house republicans if they don't support the deal? if they are able to cut a deal in the senate that house gop leaders you do like you'll get

considerably more than 40 votes. even if they get a deal done tonight in the senate, it's got to be something that realistically could pass over here in the house, and that remains a big unknown at this point. >> what are you hearing from republicans? >> well, you know, there's been some speculation about where this offer on social security, the cost of living adjustment came from. robert costa of national review reported a little nugget that republicans alerted the white house and democrats that they may demand that this be part of the negotiation a couple weeks ago. that to me seems like a bit of a stretch. it seems pretty clear that mcconnell and the senate leadership sort of opportunistically seized on a stray comment from barack obama in his interview on "meet the press" this morning that he had put this social security cut on the table and decided to seize on that and throw it into the negotiation. i think it's important though to just step back a bit and ask ourselves why a deal might not get done as it's looking now,

and i think it's two reasons. one, if we go over the cliff, i think democrats actually think the politics favor them, that the public is likely to blame republicans and the negotiations gets easier from their perspective, and on the republican side, the reason they think might go over the cliff, the real deadline isn't january 1st but when the debt ceiling comes due in eight weeks or so, and so neither side really sees this january 1st deadline as that big a problem. democrats think it gets better for them and republicans think the real game starts in eight, ten weeks. >> so let's make our predictions for the next year, 2013. ed, what do you think? will it still all be about fiscal issues, especially with the debt ceiling still looming? >> certainly. frankly haven't had much time to think ahead because we're just trying to get through today. one thing is certain, no matter what after tuesday we'll be discussing all these fiscal issues with us, whether it's the debt ceiling or the sequestration cuts that's now set to take effect this week if

a deal doesn't get cut. broader discussions probably with tax reform and reforming entitlements and then hopefully i think for the sake of all of us who perhaps are a little concerned about all the focus on fiscal stuff, will move on to domestic matters and gun control and immigration reform as well. >> a quick prediction from you, noam? >> i think the debt limit thing will loom very large. my prediction is they do something that resolves it for a year or two, but that makes it more dangerous going forward for democrats. >> thanks to both of you. i will see you back here at 5:00 p.m. eastern for the very latest on the fiscal cliff negotiations and possibly votes. up next, "meet the press," david gregory's exclusive interview with president obama. we'll keep you updated throughout the hour on any elements when it comes to the deal-making on capitol hill. ve a cold, announcer ] alka-selr plus presents the cold truth. i have a cold, and i took nyquil, but i'm still "stubbed" up.

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